Spring phenological escape is critical for the survival of temperate tree seedlings

Understorey plants in deciduous forests often rely on access to ephemeral light availability before the canopy closes spring and after reopens fall, a strategy commonly referred as phenological escape. Although there is evidence for relationship between understorey plant phenology demographic performance, mechanistic link still missing. In this study, we bridged gap by estimating annual carbon assimilation function of foliar photosynthetic capacity seedlings two temperate tree species that co-occur across eastern North America. We then modelled estimated observed seedling survival growth. Our results indicate both strongly depend escape assimilate majority their budget mechanism significantly affects likelihood (but not growth). Foliar desiccation also played strong role driving patterns survival, suggesting water will help shape recruitment dynamics. found only weak associations senescence fall assimilation, plays relatively minor performance. critical these species, thus, any changes dynamic associated with climate change could impact species' recruitment. A free Plain Language Summary can be within Supporting Information article.